SOMA Newsletter

Author

Soma Mater
March 23, 2026

Welcome to the SOMA MATER weekly newsletter.

At SOMA MATER, we specialize in delivering comprehensive research and advisory services with a focus on Food & Water Security and Net Zero Transition in the MENA Region. In order to support our subscribing clients in navigating these topics and understanding the regional narrative, we produce monthly Food and Water Security and Net Zero Transition Intelligence Reports, along with our in-depth analysis and insights.

This weekly newsletter highlights the top 3 stories from the past week in Food and Water Security and Net Zero transition, along with SOMA MATER's analysis and perspective.

How has desalination infrastructure become a strategic vulnerability for Gulf states during regional conflicts?

How does the UAE maintain food supply stability despite regional disruptions?

How does the Strait of Hormuz crisis affect Saudi Arabia's oil market, and how will the kingdom maintain global oil supply?

Sustainably yours,

The SOMA team

Thirsty for Peace: A Gulf Water Wake-Up Call

#FoodandWaterSecurity

On March 8, a desalination plant in Bahrain was attacked—the first such incident at a Gulf nation's facility during the Iran-US war. The strike followed a U.S. attack on a freshwater desalination plant in southern Iran that cut water supply to 30 villages. These events expose a vulnerability: desalination infrastructure has become a strategic target.

Groundwater and desalinated water make up roughly 90% of the Gulf region's main water resources, with reliance reaching 90% in Kuwait, 86% in Oman, 70% in Saudi Arabia, and 42% in the UAE. Unlike Iran, which relies on rivers and dams, most GCC states depend on desalination for their freshwater supply. History warns of the consequences: during the 1990-1991 Gulf War, Iraqi forces destroyed most of Kuwait's desalination capacity, crippling its water supply. Today, any disruption would threaten economic stability and domestic food production, compounding food security risks.

The UAE aims to develop storage capacity for 45 days of water supply in extreme emergencies under its Water Security Strategy 2036. Despite Saudi Arabia having the benefit of its Red Sea facilities, smaller states face higher risk due to minimal strategic reserves. There is a need for GCC countries to treat water security as a regional challenge rather than isolated national concerns. Recommended solutions include unified desalination grids, shared regional strategic water reserves, and diversified water resource strategies.

SOMA’s Perspective:

The targeting of desalination infrastructure extends into resource security, far beyond just geopolitics. Today's risks are compounded by the interconnection between water and food security. The solution lies in regional cooperation where water security can no longer be treated as a national prerogative—it must become a collective Gulf imperative.

Sources:

From Farm to Freight: The UAE's Recipe for Resilient Supply Chains

#FoodandWaterSecurity

The UAE experienced a brief increase in food prices on March 8-9, with tomato and onion prices affected due to regional tensions. However, markets were quickly stabilized and received additional supplies. The government maintains months of strategic stockpile of essential goods and regulates prices on 9 key commodities—including cooking oil, eggs, rice, and poultry—to protect consumers.

Local producers like Pure Harvest Smart Farms are demonstrating their value during the disruption—since increased local production helps supermarkets keep shelves stocked. The timing works in the UAE's favor: winter is peak season for regional ground farming across the UAE, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman. Still, if disruptions extend beyond 8 weeks for businesses like Pure Harvest Smart Farms, challenges could emerge with critical imports like fertilizers and pollination insects. The lesson from Covid-19 persist: diversify suppliers (including local) and keep local alternatives ready.

The response has been swift across the supply chain. Iran, a major supplier of fresh produce to the UAE, has banned all food exports, while Indian rice shipments face vessel shortages. Retailers like Lulu have chartered cargo flights from India, South Africa, Sri Lanka, and Kenya, with government subsidies helping manage logistics costs. Even coffee shipments from Indonesia have been rerouted through Oman.

SOMA’s Perspective:

The UAE's food security response is a lesson in adaptive resilience. When traditional supply chains fail, the value of diversification becomes clear. The ability to pivot rapidly across suppliers and transport modes is the foundation of food security in an era of persistent volatility. When one route closes, alternatives must be ready to activate at scale.

Sources:

Hormuz Headaches: When Your Main Oil Route Gets a "Closed for Business" Sign

#NetZeroTransition

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is impacting global oil markets. Saudi Arabia's Aramco warned of "catastrophic consequences" if the strait continues disrupted by the Iran conflict. It normally handles 20% of the world's daily oil supply. This is the biggest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has faced, with the possibility of 350 million barrels coming off the markets. The company already reported a 12% drop in annual profit and announced its first-ever share buyback.

Alternative routes are necessary to keep oil moving. Shipments through the port of Yanbu (Figure 1) jumped from 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February to 2.2 million bpd in March. Yet even at this pace, exports remain far below what's needed to offset the loss of 6 million bpd that previously moved through Hormuz. The kingdom has already cut production from 10.9 million bpd to 9.8 million bpd. While Aramco's pipelines can move up to 7 million bpd westward, Yanbu's port capacity has rarely exceeded 2.5 million bpd.

Figure 1

The Red Sea route offers an escape valve, but not without risk. Yemen's Houthi forces remain a threat, though no attacks have been reported since the Iran war began. Beyond impacts on shipping and insurance, the crisis will cascade across sectors—aviation, agriculture, automotive, shipping, and insurance.

SOMA’s Perspective:

Saudi Arabia's scramble to reroute through Yanbu port has doubled its exports—yet it still falls short by millions of barrels per day. The critical question is whether alternative routes like Yanbu Port, which exist on paper, can actually handle the capacity needed to replace primary arteries at scale. That question extends to the broader infrastructure challenge the region now faces.

Sources:

SOMA MATER is writing Intelligence Reports on the topics of Food and Water Security and Net Zero Transition. If you’d like to know more, contact us through the link below:

https://wkf.ms/3BmPiPo