SOMA Newsletter

Author

Soma Mater
September 22, 2025

Welcome to the SOMA MATER weekly newsletter.

At SOMA MATER, we specialize in delivering comprehensive research and advisory services with a focus on Food & Water Security and Net Zero Transition in the MENA Region. In order to support our subscribing clients in navigating these topics and understanding the regional narrative, we produce monthly Food and Water Security and Net Zero Transition Intelligence Reports, along with our in-depth analysis and insights.

This weekly newsletter highlights the top 3 stories from the past week in Food and Water Security and Net Zero transition, along with SOMA MATER's analysis and perspective.

How effectively are we progressing toward sustainability goals, and what are some challenges faced particularly in the packaging sector?⁠

How does the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project illustrate the tension between geopolitics and transboundary water security concerns in the MENA region?

How can artificial intelligence revolutionize weather forecasting in the UAE and what challenges remain in its widespread adoption?⁠

Sustainably yours,

The SOMA team

Going Green or Just Greenwashing: Unwrapping the Truth Behind Green Claims

#NetZeroTransition

The United Nation's annual check on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) progress paints a mixed picture. While improvements in health, education, energy, and digital access have benefited millions, progress remains too slow to meet 2030 targets. Only 18% of SDGs are on track and 17% show moderate progress, while nearly half are advancing too slowly and about a fifth are actually regressing. This is concerning as global temperatures have surpassed the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target, CO2 levels have peaked, and disasters like coral bleaching, melting glaciers, and wildfires intensify. A financing gap also persists, with developing countries needing to close a $4 trillion annual funding gap despite their debt burdens.

One example is the current state of the sustainable packaging sector. Despite the packaging sector's growth and increasing industry interest in sustainability initiatives, adoption remains sluggish. A McKinsey study identified 6 key barriers: affordability (sustainable materials often cost more), performance issues (including higher breakage rates and inferior print capacity), lack of alignment on sustainability definitions, evolving regulatory standards with geographic variations, limited or unreliable supply of consistent quality materials, and incomplete knowledge about available solutions.

Consumer perception also complicates sustainability efforts. Research shows products with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) claims experienced 28% cumulative growth over 5 years, compared to 20% for products without claims. Yet, packaging sustainability claims can be misleading. A survey found that between 58% and 72% of consumers in the UK, France, Germany, and Poland perceive products labeled as "fully recyclable" or "containing recycled plastic" as environmentally positive, not understanding that actual recycling is limited by infrastructure challenges. A product's recyclability depends not just on its composition but on the local recycling capabilities where it's disposed.

SOMA’s Perspective:

In the region, sustainability efforts rely heavily on developing projects and future technology deployment. Early implementation years typically show smaller gains than needed to stay on track. For example, in 2024, only about one-third of aluminum cans were recycled in the UAE, indicating room for improvement. Since then, the UAE has continued to make progress on emission reduction targets through strategic solar and nuclear projects, with Federal Decree-Law No. 11 (2024) on Climate Change Effects requiring emissions reduction strategies from all entities. Saudi Arabia is also exploring geothermal energy and introduced Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) to reduce flight emissions by up to 35%. Egypt has major renewable energy projects in line and over 30 memoranda of understanding for green hydrogen initiatives, while simultaneously improving its formal waste management infrastructure.

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Between a Rock and a Wet Place: The Gerd's Ripple Effects

#FoodandWaterSecurity

Ethiopia is set to inaugurate the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd), one of the world's largest dams built on the Blue Nile at a cost of $5 billion. This massive hydroelectric project, Africa's largest, has united Ethiopians across ethnic lines who supported its construction through contributions and government bonds since 2011. The dam not only aims to provide electricity to an estimated 60% of Ethiopia's 135 million population who currently lack access, but also positions the country for energy dominance with plans to export power to neighboring nations and potentially Saudi Arabia. Its reservoir is roughly the size of Greater London (Figure 1).

Figure 1: The Gerd dam holding back 64 billion cubic meters of water.

For Egypt, however, the dam represents a serious threat. With around 93% of Egypt being desert and its population concentrated along the Nile, the Gerd's 64 billion cubic meter reservoir will significantly reduce Egypt's water supply, which normally averages 55.5 billion cubic meters annually. This water crisis has forced Egypt to implement adaptation measures, including building the world's largest water treatment plant, drilling over 5,000 wells, and reducing water-intensive rice cultivation by half—from 2 million to 1 million acres.

The dam's completion effectively ends a colonial-era treaty from the 1920s that guaranteed Egypt approximately 80% of the Nile's waters. Despite diplomatic pressure and even threats of military action, Ethiopia proceeded with the "unilateral" decision to build the dam on what is considered an international river. While Egypt continues to seek resolution through negotiations, analysts note that military action against the dam would be "suicidal" as it would cause catastrophic flooding in both Egypt and Sudan.

SOMA’s Perspective:

Egypt's well-drilling represents a concerning response to water pressures. This adaptive measure risks depleting critical groundwater reserves, potentially exacerbating water scarcity rather than alleviating it. The GERD project illustrates the geopolitical implications of large-scale water infrastructure in regions already experiencing resource stress. This scale of water retention also introduces significant vulnerabilities, with experts expressing the danger that Ethiopia could leverage this massive water reservoir as a geopolitical instrument against neighboring countries. A dam failure or intentional release could cause devastating downstream impacts.

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Weather Wizards: AI's Forecast for Weather's Future

#FoodandWaterSecurity

Artificial Intelligence (AI) could be transforming weather forecasting with faster, cheaper, and more accurate predictions than traditional supercomputers. At a recent Abu Dhabi conference, experts highlighted how AI could transform forecasting globally, with the UAE actively supporting this transition. The National Centre of Meteorology's $10 million supercomputer exemplifies the high costs that AI solutions could dramatically reduce, as demonstrated in Malawi where $5,000 computers can now produce three-day forecasts.

Beyond cost savings, AI-based systems offer enhanced accuracy, capturing weather patterns that physical models miss by leveraging historical data. The technology shows particular promise in hybrid systems that combine traditional numerical models with AI capabilities. These systems reduce human development effort, use computing resources more efficiently, and improve forecast quality. Recent studies show how AI-based precipitation estimates outperformed traditional non-AI radar/rain gauge methods.

Despite promising results, challenges remain: global data gaps, atmospheric unpredictability, severe weather events, and climate change itself complicate forecasting efforts. Nevertheless, Deep Learning's data-driven approach offers significant advantages, requiring high computing power only during training while remaining efficient in execution. Industry experts predict that within 5-10 years, AI will become an indispensable part of weather forecasting and climate monitoring, though this transition requires training a new generation of scientists with both Earth system knowledge and AI expertise.

SOMA’s Perspective:

AI promises a step-change in forecast accuracy and cost-effectiveness, particularly for developing economies. Yet the most significant returns will likely come from targeted applications rather than broad implementation. The challenge in identifying precisely where AI can deliver material improvements to existing forecasting systems. SOMA believes that over the next decade, the application of AI in sustainability and complex natural systems, such as weather forecasting, is where exponential gains can be realized.

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SOMA MATER is writing Intelligence Reports on the topics of Food and Water Security and Net Zero Transition. If you’d like to know more, contact us through the link below:

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