SOMA Newsletter

Author

Soma Mater
March 16, 2026

Welcome to the SOMA MATER weekly newsletter.

At SOMA MATER, we specialize in delivering comprehensive research and advisory services with a focus on Food & Water Security and Net Zero Transition in the MENA Region. In order to support our subscribing clients in navigating these topics and understanding the regional narrative, we produce monthly Food and Water Security and Net Zero Transition Intelligence Reports, along with our in-depth analysis and insights.

This weekly newsletter highlights the top 3 stories from the past week in Food and Water Security and Net Zero transition, along with SOMA MATER's analysis and perspective.

How could Saudi Arabia leverage its oil and gas expertise in the green hydrogen sector?

Why is drinking water so critical during recent events in the Middle East?

How could shipping restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz threaten global food security?

Sustainably yours,

The SOMA team

Hydrogen Hype or Gulf Reality? Saudi Arabia's Green Bet Goes Big

#NetZeroTransition

Saudi Arabia is positioned to be a global green hydrogen leader by leveraging decades of oil and gas expertise. It set a net-zero target for 2060 and is developing the world's largest utility-scale green hydrogen plant, which will feature a 2.2 gigawatt electrolyzer powered by solar and wind energy when operational in 2027.

Saudi Arabia has expertise in project management, engineering, logistics, and international energy trading to scale green hydrogen production. Ports, storage tanks, and pipelines can be repurposed for hydrogen carriers like ammonia, maximizing investment value and minimizing timelines. The Kingdom's solar and wind resources and superior economics strengthen its position. Europe, Japan, and South Korea are expected to become key target markets. Challenges include building buyer scale and transforming its energy system while developing international markets.

Today, Saudi Arabia leads in tangible green hydrogen progress with the NEOM Green Hydrogen Company facility. Oman has been among the most ambitious hydrogen planners through Hydrom. However, BP withdrew from Oman’s Duqm Green Hydrogen Project in late 2025—making it the the second project cancellation from the inaugural auction. Yet, seven other awarded projects remain on track, with some already in production.

SOMA’s Perspective:

The region’s ambitions remain strong, but recent project cancellations highlight an overall uncertainty. While Saudi Arabia advances tangible progress through NEOM, questions remain about project economics, tariff structures, and offtake agreements capable of supporting final investment decisions across the region. The geopolitical uncertainty due to the war adds even more complexity to the financing environment.

Sources:

Water You Worried About? When Oil Takes a Back Seat

#FoodandWaterSecurity

Drinking water has long been described as the "strategic commodity" of the Middle East by the CIA—more critical than oil itself. Since the 1970s, the region has relied on desalination plants to meet this need, with nearly 450 facilities now serving the Gulf. But as military tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate, these plants become vulnerable targets.

The nearly 100 million people in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries depend heavily on desalination facilities, specifically Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE. Saudi Arabia's Jubail plant alone supplies over 90% of Riyadh's drinking water through a 500-km pipeline. While international law protects such infrastructure, Iran has demonstrated willingness to target them: attacking a power station in Fujairah that powers one of the world's largest desalination plants, and causing fire damage to a Kuwaiti facility through drone debris.

All regional desalination plants sit within range of Iranian missiles. Iran appears to have adopted a strategy of hitting soft targets—energy sites, airports, and water installations—while avoiding full escalation against the Israeli-American alliance. A direct attack on multiple desalination facilities would represent a massive escalation, potentially putting Arabian Gulf countries in an untenable position.

SOMA’s Perspective:

This conflict has revealed the real value of drinking water in the region—and how often it has been overlooked. Unlike oil—for which alternatives exist—water has no substitute. A prolonged disruption to desalination infrastructure could place millions at risk.

Sources:

Fertilizer Fiasco: When Gulf Tensions Make Global Groceries Sweat

#FoodandWaterSecurity

The US-Iran war is exposing global food systems to serious risks. Shipping restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz could threaten global food production. The Gulf region supplies a significant share of the world's nitrogen fertilizer—a foundation of modern crop yields. It produces up to 50% of the 60 million metric tons of urea traded through sea annually. This supports about half of global food output.

The numbers show the scale of dependency. Qatar, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UAE collectively export over 15 million metric tons annually of nitrogen fertilizer through the Strait of Hormuz. The fertilizer market lacks a strategic buffer, with inventories not built to absorb major geopolitical shocks. India, Brazil, and the U.S. all depend heavily on Gulf LNG and urea. Disruption would cause severe consequences for crop production months later.

Countries reliant on Iranian urea and those with high food and energy import dependency—like Nigeria, Pakistan, and Turkey—become vulnerable to the risk of political instability. The conflict has not yet caused a spike in food costs, but historical data expects an uptick. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the global Food Price Index rose from 17.9 points in February to 159.3 points in March 2022. Following the June 2025 12-Day War against Iran, the UN Global Food Price Index climbed 2 points through July and August before stabilizing in September, and a similar pattern is anticipated in the coming months.

SOMA’s Perspective:

The conflict's impact extends beyond immediate disruptions—it threatens medium-term supply chains. The extent of the war impacts depend on a country’s dietary staple sourcing and domestic agricultural capacity. Countries with diversified local production and lower import dependence face lower risk. This reveals the risk of dependence on imported staples—a vulnerability that countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia have worked hard to reduce. History shows that the effects on price eventually materialize, though not immediately.

Sources:

SOMA MATER is writing Intelligence Reports on the topics of Food and Water Security and Net Zero Transition. If you’d like to know more, contact us through the link below:

https://wkf.ms/3BmPiPo