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Soma Mater
December 01, 2025
Welcome to the SOMA MATER weekly newsletter.
At SOMA MATER, we specialize in delivering comprehensive research and advisory services with a focus on Food & Water Security and Net Zero Transition in the MENA Region. In order to support our subscribing clients in navigating these topics and understanding the regional narrative, we produce monthly Food and Water Security and Net Zero Transition Intelligence Reports, along with our in-depth analysis and insights.
This weekly newsletter highlights the top 3 stories from the past week in Food and Water Security and Net Zero transition, along with SOMA MATER's analysis and perspective.
How is the global shift toward energy security creating both opportunities and vulnerabilities in the transition to clean energy?
What other countries in the MENA region are adopting cloud seeding technology as a response to severe water scarcity?
How will Saudi Arabia leverage AI and sustainability principles to transform its tourism sector?
Sustainably yours,
The SOMA team
Two Steps Forward, One Step Back: The World's Dance with Clean Energy
#NetZeroTransition
The global energy landscape is caught in a paradox: countries are doubling down on energy security through diverging strategies—some betting on renewables and efficiency, others on traditional fuels. Despite renewables breaking deployment records for the 23rd consecutive year, fossil fuel consumption hit new peaks in 2024, with coal demand surging 50% faster than natural gas since 2019. Three scenarios are presented in the recent World Energy Outlook 2025 report: the Current Policies Scenario, the Stated Policies Scenario, and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050.
These scenarios identify 4 key shifts that will shape the future. First, critical minerals supply chains have become a vulnerability point for energy security—a single country dominates refining for 19 of 20 strategic minerals with 70% market share. Second, we're entering the Age of Electricity, with electricity prices becoming a key reference point for consumers and policy makers; yet grid investment lags dangerously behind generation capacity. Third, there is explosive growth of data centers and AI, with 2025 data center investment ($580 billion) exceeding global oil supply spending. Lastly, weather-related disruptions are intensifying, with transmission grids affected in 85% of climate incidents.
The energy system's center of gravity is shifting toward emerging economies, including those in the Middle East, collectively inheriting China's mantle as the primary driver of demand growth. This transition is powered by renewables leading all energy sources in growth, while nuclear energy stages a remarkable comeback with over 70 GW under construction and capacity set to rise by at least one-third by 2035.
SOMA’s Perspective:
The paradox highlighted here indicates that countries are hedging their bets based on what they can afford, control, and deploy quickly. When energy security trumps climate ambition, the cheapest and most accessible fuel wins. The data center investment figure signals where capital is flowing. The Middle East's positioning as one of the new centers of gravity for energy demand growth means the region will need to navigate the infrastructure gap during this ‘Age of Electricity’. We have already seen this play out in Kuwait and Egypt, with temporary power outages. Grid investment lagging behind generation capacity is the Achilles heel of the entire transition.
Source:
Seeding Hope: Can Iran Make It Rain?
#FoodandWaterSecurity
Iran has also turned to cloud seeding technology as it confronts its worst drought in half a century. Authorities carried out operations over the Urmia Lake basin—once the country's largest lake, now mostly a vast salt bed—in a desperate bid to induce rainfall. The crisis is stark: rainfall has plummeted 89% below long-term averages, some reservoirs are hovering in single-digit percentages, and without enough rainfall soon, Tehran may face water rationing or even evacuations.
Cloud seeding offers a glimmer of hope, but its track record is mixed. Global programs report precipitation increases of 10-30% when conducted from aircraft, but results for acute drought relief remain inconclusive. The World Meteorological Organization notes that measuring effectiveness is challenging, with multiple atmospheric factors complicating assessments.
Cloud seeding approach is gaining traction across the Gulf. Following the UAE's success in rainfall enhancement, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have launched their own cloud seeding programs under initiatives like the Middle East Green Initiative. As climate change intensifies water scarcity in the region, this collaboration signals a shift toward weather modification as a viable—if uncertain—strategy for water security.
SOMA’s Perspective:
Cloud seeding is often seen as a last resort to boost dwindling water supplies when fundamentals fail. Iran's aquifers are overdrafted, their land is sinking at rates of over 30 centimeters annually, and they now have turned to seeding clouds. The real question is whether Iran will do anything to retain that water once it falls. Green water—soil moisture and vegetation—offers a more strategic solution. When the green water system is strengthened, precipitation is harvested; and natural reservoirs that buffer against drought cycles are built.
Sources:
https://mei.edu/publications/looking-skies-growing-interest-cloud-seeding-technology-gulf#:~:text=In the past few decades,UAE's ambitious cloud seeding program.
Silicon Sands: How Saudi Arabia is Rewriting the Tourism Playbook
#NetZeroTransition
Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Tourism and the World Economic Forum launched Beyond Tourism at the TOURISE summit—a multi-sector initiative to transform global tourism through sustainability, inclusion, and resilience. The program unites leaders across real estate, infrastructure, technology, and conservation around 10 principles aligning market opportunities with local values, empowering enterprise, protecting ecosystems, and harnessing technology responsibly. Over the next 3 years, it will build coalitions and pilot sustainable tourism models in key regions.
Saudi Arabia also unveiled the Agentic Tourism Initiative, introducing AI-driven protocols that enable seamless interaction between travel systems—from airlines to accommodations—to optimize the entire traveler journey. Saudi Arabia has already attracted over 116 million visitors since the launch of Vision 2030 and targets 150 million by 2030. As global tourist numbers are projected to double by 2035, these "agentic protocols" aim to unify touch points across the travel ecosystem, ensuring efficiency from booking to arrival.
Sustainability anchors both initiatives. The Agentic Tourism framework uses AI to promote eco-friendly practices and support local economies, reducing environmental impact while enhancing travel quality. Together, Beyond Tourism and Agentic Tourism position Saudi Arabia at the forefront of a new era where technology and responsible growth converge to redefine what tourism can achieve.
SOMA’s Perspective:
This represents Saudi Arabia's next drive to redefine tourism through sustainability. Traditional tourism models are recognized as environmentally unsustainable due to their reliance on a linear "take-make-dispose" approach. By embedding sustainability principles at the protocol level—not as an afterthought—the Kingdom is attempting to future-proof an industry that can externalize environmental costs. If Saudi Arabia can demonstrate that mass tourism and environmental stewardship aren't mutually exclusive, it could establish a template for climate-constrained destinations worldwide.
Sources:
https://economymiddleeast.com/news/saudi-arabia-ministry-tourism-wef-launch-beyond-tourism-initiative/#:~:text=Lifestyle Hospitality & Tourism-,Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Tourism%2C WEF launch Beyond,initiative to drive transformational growth&text=The Ministry of Tourism of,shape the future of tourism.
https://pollution.sustainability-directory.com/term/circular-tourism-models/#:~:text=The definition of a linear,regenerative%2C closed-loop system.
SOMA MATER is writing Intelligence Reports on the topics of Food and Water Security and Net Zero Transition. If you’d like to know more, contact us through the link below: